भारत में 2017 में मानसूनी वर्षा के वितरण के असामान्य प्रतिरूप का तर्कयुक्त विवरण दीजिए। Give a reasoned account of unusual pattern of distribution of monsoonal rainfall in India in 2017.
The 2017 monsoon season in India exhibited an unusual pattern of distribution, deviating significantly from the normal spatial and temporal averages. While the overall rainfall for the country was near normal (around 95% of the Long Period Average - LPA), there were pronounced regional disparities and temporal fluctuations that characterized its unusual nature.
Key Anomalies Observed:
- Spatial Disparities: Several key agricultural states, particularly in the Gangetic plains (e.g., parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal), and some northeastern states experienced significant rainfall deficits. This adversely impacted agricultural output, especially for kharif crops. Southern peninsular India, particularly Karnataka and Kerala, also faced deficits in the initial months. Conversely, some regions, notably parts of Central India (e.g., Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat) and the Northwest (e.g., Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana), received above-normal rainfall, leading to localized flooding in certain areas.
- Temporal Fluctuations: The monsoon onset over Kerala was slightly delayed, and its initial progress was weak, leading to concerns about a dry spell in June. July, however, saw a strong revival and an active monsoon phase, compensating for some of the initial deficits. The monsoon withdrawal began earlier than usual from parts of Northwest India. Many regions experienced prolonged dry spells during critical crop growth stages, even if the cumulative seasonal rainfall appeared normal.
- Impact of Low-Pressure Systems: The formation and movement of low-pressure systems and monsoon depressions played a crucial role. Their tracks often favored central and western India, leading to concentrated rainfall in these areas, while the absence of such systems over the eastern and northeastern parts contributed to deficits.
- Local Factors: Orographic effects and local weather phenomena also contributed to the highly localized nature of rainfall, leading to 'feast or famine' situations within relatively small geographical areas.
Reasons for the Unusual Pattern: While no single factor can be attributed, a combination of global and regional atmospheric phenomena likely contributed:
- Weak La Niña/Neutral ENSO Conditions: The year 2017 was largely characterized by neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, transitioning from a weak La Niña. While La Niña generally favors good monsoons, its weak and fluctuating nature might have contributed to the variability.
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): The IOD, which influences the Indian monsoon, was largely positive in 2017. A positive IOD typically brings good rainfall to India, but its interaction with other atmospheric circulations can lead to regional variations.
- Mid-Latitude Westerlies: Interactions with mid-latitude weather systems can sometimes disrupt the monsoon trough, leading to shifts in rainfall patterns.
The unusual distribution in 2017 highlighted the increasing variability of the Indian monsoon, posing significant challenges for agricultural planning, water resource management, and disaster preparedness across different regions of the country.