(c) जनसंख्या की निवल जनन दर (एन० आर० आर०) और जनसंख्या के वास्तविक प्रतिस्थापन स्तर के बीच संबंध को स्पष्ट कीजिए। Explain the relationship between net reproductive rate (NRR) and true replacement level of population.
The Net Reproductive Rate (NRR) and the true replacement level of population are closely related demographic concepts, both aiming to measure the extent to which a generation of women replaces itself with another generation of women, taking into account both fertility and mortality.
Net Reproductive Rate (NRR): The NRR is a refined measure that represents the average number of daughters a woman would have if she survived to the end of her reproductive years, experiencing the current age-specific fertility rates and age-specific mortality rates. Unlike the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which only considers births, the NRR accounts for the fact that some women will die before or during their childbearing years and thus will not contribute their full potential to reproduction. It is calculated by summing the products of age-specific fertility rates and the probability of survival to each age within the reproductive span.
True Replacement Level of Population: The true replacement level of population refers to the fertility rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, assuming constant mortality rates and no migration. In simpler terms, it's the number of children per woman needed to maintain a stable population size over the long term. For most developed countries, this figure is often cited as approximately 2.1 children per woman. This value is slightly above 2.0 (one daughter and one son) to account for two main factors:
- Sex Ratio at Birth: Slightly more boys are born than girls (typically around 105 boys for every 100 girls).
- Mortality before Reproductive Age: Not all daughters born will survive to their reproductive years to become mothers themselves.
Relationship between NRR and True Replacement Level: The NRR directly quantifies the true replacement level when considering the female population. The relationship is as follows:
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NRR = 1.0: When the Net Reproductive Rate is exactly 1.0, it means that, on average, each generation of women is precisely replacing itself with an equal number of daughters who survive to reproductive age. This NRR of 1.0 is the true replacement level for a population, indicating that the population will eventually stabilize and achieve zero population growth in the long run, assuming no net migration. In this scenario, the number of births is just enough to compensate for deaths, leading to a stationary population.
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NRR > 1.0: If the NRR is greater than 1.0, it implies that each generation of women is more than replacing itself. This indicates that the population is growing and will continue to increase in size, assuming current fertility and mortality trends persist.
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NRR < 1.0: If the NRR is less than 1.0, it means that each generation of women is not fully replacing itself. This indicates that the population is declining and will continue to shrink over time, assuming current trends.
In essence, the NRR is a more accurate and comprehensive measure than the TFR for determining whether a population is at, above, or below its true replacement level because it inherently incorporates the impact of mortality. While a TFR of 2.1 is often cited as the replacement level, the NRR provides a direct measure of whether the net number of daughters born and surviving is sufficient to replace the previous generation of mothers. Therefore, an NRR of 1.0 is the precise demographic indicator of a population achieving its true replacement level.