Political Science and IR Optional 2018 Paper II

Critically assess the evolving convergence of India and China in the areas of trade and environment.

Verified Answer

Despite significant geopolitical tensions and border disputes, India and China exhibit a complex and evolving convergence in the areas of trade and environment, driven by both shared interests and pragmatic necessities. A critical assessment reveals that this convergence is often strategic and situational, rather than indicative of a broader alignment.

Convergence in Trade:

  1. Growing Bilateral Trade: Economically, China has become one of India's largest trading partners. Despite calls for decoupling and reducing reliance on Chinese imports, bilateral trade has continued to grow, reaching record highs. This is driven by the complementary nature of their economies to some extent, with China's manufacturing prowess meeting India's demand for goods, and India supplying raw materials and some services.
  2. Shared Stance on Global Trade: Both India and China are major developing economies and members of the World Trade Organization (WTO). They often find common ground in advocating for a multilateral, rules-based trading system and resisting protectionist tendencies from developed nations. They share an interest in ensuring market access and fair trade practices globally.

Critical Assessment of Trade Convergence:

  • Massive Trade Deficit: The most significant point of divergence is India's persistent and massive trade deficit with China. India views this as unsustainable and a threat to its domestic industries. Concerns about market access for Indian goods and services in China, non-tariff barriers, and alleged dumping practices by Chinese firms remain contentious issues.
  • Geopolitical Spillover: Trade relations are frequently impacted by geopolitical tensions. India has taken steps to restrict Chinese investments, ban certain Chinese apps, and impose higher tariffs on specific imports, particularly after border skirmishes. This indicates that economic interdependence does not necessarily translate into political harmony.
  • Supply Chain Diversification: India's 'Make in India' initiative and efforts to diversify its supply chains, often in collaboration with partners like Japan and Australia (e.g., Supply Chain Resilience Initiative), are aimed at reducing over-reliance on China, highlighting a strategic divergence rather than convergence.

Convergence in Environment:

  1. Shared Climate Challenges: Both India and China are large, rapidly industrializing nations facing severe environmental degradation, including air and water pollution, and are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This shared predicament necessitates action and often leads to similar policy responses.
  2. Common Position in International Climate Negotiations: Historically, India and China have formed a strong bloc (often within the BASIC group – Brazil, South Africa, India, China) in international climate negotiations. They advocate for the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC), emphasizing that developed nations bear a greater historical responsibility for emissions and should provide financial and technological support to developing countries. They often resist stringent, legally binding emission reduction targets that could impede their development.
  3. Investment in Renewables: Both countries are making significant investments in renewable energy technologies, particularly solar and wind power, and electric vehicles. This is driven by a combination of energy security concerns, reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports, and addressing domestic pollution issues.

Critical Assessment of Environmental Convergence:

  • Domestic Implementation Differences: While their international negotiating positions often align, their domestic environmental policies, regulatory frameworks, and enforcement mechanisms can differ significantly. China has, in recent years, shown a more aggressive stance on domestic environmental clean-up and renewable energy deployment than India in some sectors.
  • Competition for Resources: Both countries' rapid development places immense pressure on global natural resources, potentially leading to competition rather than cooperation in some areas.
  • Evolving Stances: India's climate diplomacy has shown signs of evolving, sometimes aligning more closely with Western positions on certain aspects, while still upholding CBDR-RC. This suggests that while a common front exists, it is not monolithic.

In conclusion, the convergence between India and China in trade and environment is a nuanced phenomenon. In trade, it is largely driven by market forces and economic pragmatism, but it is heavily constrained by geopolitical rivalry and India's strategic goal of reducing its trade deficit and dependence. In the environmental sphere, convergence is more pronounced in international forums where they share common developing country interests and challenges, but domestic priorities and implementation approaches can vary. This 'convergence' is best understood as a pragmatic, often tactical, alignment on specific issues rather than a fundamental shift towards broader strategic cooperation.